Model performance
Out-of-sample, walk-forward evaluation of stored predictions. No claim of accuracy or profitability is made until a large enough sample supports it.
Competitions: Major League Soccer, Serie A, Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Allsvenskan, Ekstraklasa, La Liga 2, La Liga, Eliteserien, Championship, League Two, Pro League, League One, Premier League, Liga Portugal, Ligue 1, Super Lig, Eredivisie, Superliga, Admiral Bundesliga, Super League, Ligue 2, 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga, Serie B, Premiership, Copa Del Rey · 4 rolling folds · run 14 Oct 2026
Accuracy vs baselines (lower Brier / log loss is better)
| Forecast | n | Mean forecast | Actual over 1.5 | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THE 1.5 model | 3029 | 75.1% | 78.8% | 0.168 | 0.518 |
| League historical rate | 3029 | 76.2% | 78.8% | 0.166 | 0.513 |
| Market (margin removed) | 1374 | 75.3% | 78.9% | 0.161 | 0.501 |
Calibration by probability band
Blue bar: average predicted chance. Green mark: actual over 1.5 rate, with 95% range. Well-calibrated bands have the mark at the end of the bar.
Held-out calibration check (later folds only, n=1661)
Brier raw 0.172 → calibrated 0.169; log loss 0.526 → 0.521. Calibration was fitted on earlier folds only and is not yet used for live predictions.
Threshold comparison
| Shortlist at | Picks | Share of predictions | Hit rate | 95% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 2864 | 94.6% | 79.5% | 78%–81% |
| 70% | 2284 | 75.4% | 81.0% | 79%–83% |
| 80% (yours) | 935 | 30.9% | 83.5% | 81%–86% |
| 90% | 61 | 2.0% | 86.9% | 76%–93% |
80% is the starting product setting, not a proven optimum. Changing your threshold never rewrites stored predictions.
Odds-based results (picks at 80%+, level 1-unit stakes)
Odds available for 45.4% of predictions.
Return on investment is not calculated: too few trustworthy pre-kick-off odds (431 priced picks, 46.1% coverage; 30 picks and 50% needed).
Past results don't guarantee future returns.
By competition
| n | Actual | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Major League Soccer | 317 | 83.9% | 0.140 |
| Serie A | 295 | 76.6% | 0.182 |
| Liga Profesional de Fútbol | 239 | 65.7% | 0.235 |
| Allsvenskan | 144 | 78.5% | 0.176 |
| Ekstraklasa | 126 | 80.2% | 0.157 |
| La Liga 2 | 126 | 76.2% | 0.184 |
| La Liga | 125 | 75.2% | 0.181 |
| Eliteserien | 123 | 86.2% | 0.121 |
| Championship | 117 | 78.6% | 0.177 |
| League Two | 107 | 79.4% | 0.167 |
| Pro League | 107 | 85.0% | 0.139 |
| League One | 104 | 72.1% | 0.193 |
| Premier League | 104 | 78.8% | 0.172 |
| Liga Portugal | 103 | 70.9% | 0.209 |
| Ligue 1 | 89 | 79.8% | 0.163 |
| Super Lig | 88 | 77.3% | 0.172 |
| Eredivisie | 88 | 90.9% | 0.095 |
| Superliga | 87 | 80.5% | 0.168 |
| Admiral Bundesliga | 82 | 82.9% | 0.148 |
| Super League | 81 | 86.4% | 0.124 |
| Ligue 2 | 78 | 74.4% | 0.194 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 77 | 79.2% | 0.173 |
| Bundesliga | 76 | 93.4% | 0.078 |
| Serie B | 75 | 74.7% | 0.182 |
| Premiership | 70 | 78.6% | 0.184 |
| Copa Del Rey | 1 | 100.0% | 0.029 |
By season
| n | Actual | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/2026 | 1022 | 79.5% | 0.164 |
| 2026 | 1015 | 78.1% | 0.172 |
| 2026/2027 | 992 | 78.7% | 0.168 |
By data confidence
| n | Actual | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| high | 2731 | 78.1% | 0.171 |
| medium | 216 | 84.3% | 0.137 |
| low | 82 | 85.4% | 0.138 |
Assumptions
- Rolling origin: each fold is predicted using only matches finished before the fold start.
- Calibration (Platt scaling) is fitted on the earlier half of folds and scored only on later folds.
- Baseline: league over 1.5 rate before the fold start. Market: margin-removed price captured before kick-off.
- Odds results: level 1-unit stakes at the best pre-kick-off over 1.5 price; ROI withheld under 30 priced picks or under 50% odds coverage.